Abstract:

Reconciling food security, economic development and biodiversity conservation in the face of global changes is a major challenge. The sustainable uses of marine biodiversity in the context of climate change, invasive species, water pollution and demographic growth is an example of this bio-economic challenge. There is a need for quantitative methods, models, scenarios and indicators to support policies addressing this issue. Although bio-economic models for marine resources date back to the 1950s and are still used in fisheries management and policy design, they need major improvements, extensions and breakthroughs. Our presentation designs a Mathematical Bio-Economics 2.0 (MBE2) for Sustainable Fisheries in order to advance the development of bio-economic models and scenarios for the management of fisheries and marine ecosystems confronted with unprecedented global change. These models and scenarios should make both ecological and economic senses while being well-posed mathematically and numerically. To achieve this, we propose to base the MBE2 framework for Sustainable Fisheries on four research axes regarding the mathematics and modeling of : (i) ecosystem-based f isheries management; (ii) criteria of sustainability; (iii) criteria of resilience; (iv) governance and strategic interactions. The associated methodology of MBE2 draws mainly on dynamic systems theory, optimal and viable controls of systems, game theory and stochastic approaches. Our analysis, based on these four axes, allows us to identify the main methodological gaps to fill compared to current models for fisheries management. The presentation brings together theoretical findings and applications to f isheries worldwide.

Abstract:

Abstract:

Arguably, water is the most important resource for mankind. It is essential from our food production down to our industrial activities. Managing our water resources has been essential for the development of our societies since ancient history. In modern society, our ability to control the availability of water is key for agriculture, life in cities, transport and energy production. These achievements are a success of engineering sciences and our ability to observe nature. Climate change is an unintentional consequence of the development of our societies. But as water is a key element of the thermodynamics of the Earth system, climate change will fundamentally alter the water cycle and our resources. As the organisation of our society is so closely linked to water availability, the impact of climate change on our resources will have wide ranging consequences. Understanding and predicting these consequences is a fundamental multi-disciplinary endeavour.

To this end the development of appropriate tools and monitor the current state and predict their future evolution in a changing climate are needed to guide our management. At the land surfaces the energy, water and carbon cycles are tightly coupled and thus one cannot be simulated without the other. In contrast to the current generation of climate models, we cannot make the assumption that the system is natural any more. Thus, we need to prepare modelling tools which also envision an evolution of how we manage our resources in an evolving system. The presentation will make the case that a new paradigm is needed which tightly couples the natural cycles with the socioeconomic constraint on the usage of the resources. This will be achieved by reviewing the current modelling strategies, their failures and how they are being overcome.